Two years after predicting GLP-1 disruption, I revisit what I got right, what I got wrong, and what suppliers should do next.
In March 2024, this column asked whether GLP-1 drugs represented heavy damage or just disruption for medtech. Two years later, with one in nine American adults now on the drugs, the answer is both. Predictions made in print (and on the web) deserve a review. I anticipated then that GLP-1s would not be a single shock to the industry and supply chain, but rather a series of small battles in individual specialties that would take years to play out. Obesity-driven conditions at the time were estimated at 20% to 25% of annual medtech spending, and the argument was that the greatest risk sat not with diversified OEMs but with contract manufacturers, whose profitability typically rests on five or fewer large programs. That general observation held up, but some of the other specific predictions did not.
